General opposites:
* Doubtfully
* Uncertainly
* Perhaps
* Maybe
* Possibly
* It's unlikely
* It's not certain
More specific opposites:
* Definitely not (if "surely" implies certainty)
* Absolutely not (if "surely" implies strong certainty)
* Impossible (if "surely" implies something is inevitable)
Example:
* Surely it will rain today. (Opposite: It's unlikely to rain today)
* Surely you're joking! (Opposite: I'm dead serious!)
Choose the opposite that best fits the specific situation and intended meaning.